Tomorrow is one of the last big primary nights of 2026, and I’m going into it with a position I’ve been holding since March. When I first bought Byron Donalds to win the Florida GOP gubernatorial nomination, the market had him at 83.9%. Today, he’s sitting around 99%.
So... now what?
That’s actually a more interesting question than it sounds. After what happened to me with Francesca Hong last week (SEE: ‘I Lost My Hong’), I’m thinking very seriously about taking the profit BEFORE Florida finishes counting votes. Sometimes squeezing out that final penny isn’t worth the risk. I learned that one the expensive way.
But there’s something bigger happening here.
The easy money is getting harder to find
There was a time when you could wander into a prediction market the night before an election, find a candidate who was obviously underpriced, and grab 10% or 20% without doing anything particularly heroic.
Those opportunities are becoming few and far between.
The markets are getting smarter. Donalds is a good example. There may still be some interesting opportunities buried in the Florida results tomorrow, including one involving James Fishback’s vote total that caught my attention, but the obvious Donalds value was available MONTHS ago. Now it’s basically gone.
And with the primary calendar winding down, a lot of money that has been bouncing from primary to primary is about to go somewhere else.
November.
Tonight, I went through the board today and found several races where I think the market is still offering surprisingly good returns. Some of them are incredibly boring. That’s part of what I like about them.
Watch on YouTube (continue reading below):
Would you rather sweat through a 50/50 race on election night, or find something the market prices at 88% that you think should really be 96% or 97%? I’ll take boring almost every time.
We get into those races today, why I think some of that value could disappear quickly, and why our Predictable Constitutional amendment “Knowing Your APR” becomes much more important as we move toward November.
Plus, I finally went back through the wreckage of Wisconsin to figure out how a candidate leading by nearly 20 points in the polls LOST, and what we should actually learn from it.
And because this show occasionally needs to escape politics for our own mental health, I also found a prediction market asking whether Pedro Pascal deserves a Best Actor nomination for standing behind a metal helmet and talking to a puppet.
I have thoughts. I know you have thoughts as well, and that’s why I love taking your questions during our Premium Member Livestream: Includes Q&A.
How does one partake in such a wondrous activity? Glad you asked:
For premium subscribers this is the livestream we give you from the studio. The Q&A is towards the end of the program.
See you tomorrow night for our election results livestream.
Enjoy!
