Election season is just starting to heat up. Tomorrow is one of those days where the prediction market universe gets pretty interesting. Five states have key elections, several of them are fairly competitive. Narratives are spun, markets bounce around… but here’s where reality sets in.
One of the biggest mistakes I see traders make is assuming the market is “finished” just because a candidate is sitting at 97% or 98%. Sometimes it’s right. Sometimes it’s just... really confident.
On today’s show, I walk through where I think the market has become too certain, the positions I’ve already closed, the ones I’m still holding, and one election-night strategy I’ll be watching as the first votes start coming in.
Where I’m Looking
We spend a lot of time on Michigan, where I think the Democratic Senate market has gotten a little ahead of itself. We also dig into Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina, looking at where I still see value and where I think the market may be overlooking some important details. If you’re planning to trade tomorrow night’s results, this episode should help you think through the opportunities before the chaos begins.
And of Course… Spider Man
It’s off to a tremendous start at the box office. That’s great for everyone involved in that production… but we don’t really care about them. I still think there’s one Spider-Man prediction market that has room to run, even after raking in a gazillion dollars (ish) opening weekend.
Make a Note of It
Go ahead and watch tonight’s episode (link below and above… we’re trying to make this unavoidable, if you haven’t noticed) and once you’re done with that, make a note to hang with us TOMORROW night as we cover the primary results live.
BIG ANNOUNCEMENT
If you’re a paid subscriber, Friday is our Stu’s Picks Record Release Party, where I’ll finally publish my complete list of current positions, confidence levels, and exactly how I’m thinking about each one. I’m looking forward to walking through all of it with you live.
