Tomorrow is one of the biggest primary days of the year. Wisconsin. Minnesota. South Carolina. Connecticut. Vermont. Alabama and there are some VERY interesting markets out there.
Let’s start in Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong is sitting around 95% to win the Democratic nomination for governor. Normally when you see that high a percentage, your first thought is you missed out on the action. That may not be the case here, however.
Yes, Hong is dominating the polling and her biggest competition has all but faded away. Even the polls sponsored by her remaining opponent have her winning comfortably. So yes, I have a position. And at around 95 cents, I’m considering making it bigger.
Five percent isn’t really all that sexy. But you know what is? Being right.
Especially when you can find situations where the actual probability might be even higher than what the market is telling you.
THEN THERE’S MIKE LINDELL
This one is much weirder. Lindell has led recent polling in Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary. The prediction market? It likes Lisa Demuth and it likes her quite a bit.
That is the sort of disagreement I want to investigate because somebody is wrong. And if we can figure out who it is before everyone else does, there may be an opportunity. On tonight’s program, we get into that race plus Trump’s latest endorsement test in South Carolina, Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary and a bunch more.
Oh, and we updated the Stu’s Picks record. Spoiler alert: it’s going very well, if I do say so myself. Our large positions are now 27-0. Our all-in positions are 6-0. I’d really prefer not to screw that up tomorrow.
Tomorrow night we’ll be following these races as the votes come in, because that’s when things can get really fun. We’ve seen supposedly safe favorites suddenly collapse, markets move dramatically and opportunities appear in real-time.
So watch today’s Predictable w/ Stu to get ready. And if you want all of my positions, including the smaller markets I don’t have time to get to on the show, they’re available to Predictable premium subscribers.
One of the biggest primary nights of the year is almost here.
Let’s get paid for our pain!
