What an insane night.
Many would argue that the candidates were insane, but the trading was even more so. Seriously. I thought for sure this position was over. I bought Haley Stevens at about 1.35¢, hoping for a brief spike during the early vote count. Instead, the first numbers came in... and she got absolutely buried. At one point, the contract was basically worthless.
Then something really weird happened. The market completely changed its mind and by the end of the night, what looked like one of my dumbest trades of the year had turned into one of my best. Many Predictable Substackers were along for the ride and it was about as wild as it gets. I have a feeling, though, that the craziness is just ramping up. November is poised to be incredible, and if the results from last night are any indication, it’s going to be profitable, too.
Tonight I break down exactly how everything went down, along with what Michigan’s Democratic primary means for the Senate map going forward. I also touched on why prediction markets reacted the way they did and the strategy that let us profit without needing Haley Stevens to actually win the election.
We also went through every election-night position, my biggest mistake of the year (yes, Cori Bush...), and a couple of new markets I’m keeping an eye on.
If you missed the live show, it’s worth seeing tonight’s explainer.
WATCH:
