Finally... Someone Built This
75% aren't placing trades. They're looking for answers.
I was legitimately upset that my flight got canceled because it meant I wasn’t going to spend my morning sifting through election spreadsheets.
I know. I have issues.
But on today’s Predictable show, I explain why I was so excited.
Some really interesting information was just released that gives us a look under the hood at the users of Kalshi, one of the top prediction markets. Three-quarters (75%) of all visitors to Kalshi come just to see the odds on individual events, while only one in four actually trade.
That means they’re going there for information. It backs up what we’ve been telling you for weeks: prediction markets are valuable because they give you better information than the mainstream media, campaigns, or even polls.
I also break down what happened in Arizona last night, some key election positions I’m watching, and answer a bunch of your comments and questions.
You also may have noticed something new today if you’re a subscriber to PredictableShow.com: an opportunity to watch the daily show being taped and hang out with me between breaks. Prediction markets are only getting bigger, and it’s going to be a wild ride as we grow right alongside them. I’m excited to have you with us on the ground floor.
If you missed today’s show, I think it’s an important one. And even if you already watched it, go ahead and give it another view on YouTube—if for no other reason than to help us fight the algorithm. Apparently prediction markets are a little too dangerous for big tech and the algorithm. Let's prove it wrong.
Here’s the YouTube link:
Make sure you’re following along with the podcast as well! Follow me here:
Just to follow up my previous comment with an example. I'll take the World Cup final.
I did not place a position until Spain scored in stoppage time in the second half. It was clear that Argentina was going full defense to try to get the game into penalty kicks, where they would surely win. But that didn't happen with an Argentina red card. Down to ten men, it's nigh impossible to score against a team that is dominating possession and making all the shots either on target or off. Spain scored the goal, and that was the best time to get in. The game otherwise would mean nothing to me and I would have just let it go if it got to penalties.
And that's where I bring up the third amendment influencing my decision: If you do not know what you're investing in, it's not an investment. I'm paraphrasing, but the idea is clear: watch the game to get the picture, even if it's just the play-by-play on Kalshi.