I had to jump on tonight because I ran into one of those stories that was just too weird not to share. Somebody came in and started buying thousands of “No” shares on Hakeem Jeffries winning a primary where, as far as I can tell, he’s basically running against nobody. So naturally I started wondering: am I missing something, or is somebody else?
Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe someone made a mistake. Maybe something crazy is about to happen. I have absolutely no idea. But I walked through what I saw, what the rules actually say, and why “it can’t hurt to ask” might need to become one of our constitutional amendments around here.
Give the livestream a watch and let me know your theories. Because honestly, I still don’t know what to make of it.
And speaking of strange markets and active theses, make sure and check out tonight’s FULL show as well. Below is a recap of everything we covered on tonight’s full show…
Tonight’s show started with the latest “deal” between the United States and Iran. I put “deal” in quotation marks for a reason.
What we have right now is not a peace agreement or even a nuclear agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding, which, according to one Trump administration official, is basically a table of contents for a future agreement.
Could it lead to positive things? Of course. I root for peace, and I hope this works. But if you’ve watched this show for any length of time, you know one of our active thesis statements has been pretty simple: when the media says peace is around the corner with Iran, we tend to go the other way.
That thesis has treated us well. It has made us money multiple times. But like every thesis, it only stays active as long as reality supports it. If this process turns into an actual agreement and delivers real results, we’ll retire it and move on.
For now, I think there are better opportunities in the markets surrounding an actual nuclear deal than there are in trying to guess exactly how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. Multiple sides want that waterway open, which makes those markets a little more complicated than they first appear.
As always, read the rules.
Tomorrow’s Primaries
Tomorrow night we have Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama. Once again we’ll be testing another active thesis statement: Trump gets what he wants in Republican primaries.
That thesis has been incredibly profitable for us. Ken Paxton alone became part of the Predictable Hall of Fame. But every election season brings new tests, and tomorrow’s races are fascinating.
Georgia remains one of the few states where Trump endorsements haven’t always translated into automatic victories. Oklahoma presents a runoff situation where timing itself becomes a risk. Alabama has become surprisingly volatile as momentum shifts between candidates.
And honestly, one of the biggest lessons from tonight’s show may be this: sometimes the best investment is the one you don’t make.
You don’t have to force a position.
Not every market has value. Sometimes preserving your capital is the smartest play available.
What We’re Watching
Tomorrow we’ll be live as the polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern. As always, we’ll be watching the vote returns in real time and looking for opportunities the markets haven’t fully priced in yet.
We’ve caught several of those moments already this season. We’ve also helped people avoid losses by recognizing when a position had gone south.
We’ll dig deeper into margin markets, vote-share markets, and some of the longshot opportunities that could develop as results come in.
And yes, we still owe you aliens.
We had plans tonight to talk about Spielberg’s latest movie and some new alien-related stories, but I spent way too much time talking about Iran and primaries. We’ll get to that soon enough.
Until then, remember: read the rules, don’t force positions, and if the media tells you everything is solved in the Middle East, maybe wait a minute before believing them.
See you tomorrow night.
