Predictable Isn’t Live Just Yet - but It’s Already Working

Launch Day is Fast Approaching

We are currently in the thick of a massive ramp-up period as we head toward our multi-launch month in April. There is a lot moving behind the scenes, and the schedule is filling up fast.

• Content Expansion: We are officially staffing up to handle the increased load. Expect a significant uptick in the volume and variety of content coming on board as our new team members get into the groove.

• Stu and Dave Do America: Mark your calendars for the launch of Stu and Dave Do America. We are currently aiming for a premiere between April 1st and 6th, pending a few final scheduling hurdles. This show has nothing to do with prediction markets, but I’m on it, so please check it out or I will be sad.

• Predictable with Stu: Our new show, Predictable with Stu, is slated to kick off in mid-April. This is, of course, contingent on the studio being finished on time—a “prediction market” in itself.

• Where to watch/listen to these shows? Fear not! It’s incredibly easy to understand and totally intuitive in every way, that’s why I had to make a graphic to explain it. (Eventually, the show names will match up, but there are contracts and such. This is where to go to be an early adopter.)

Testing the Waters

While we aren’t quite ready to provide full, comprehensive coverage of every single market just yet, we haven’t been sitting on the sidelines. We’ve been sprinkling some money into various markets over the last few weeks, basically because we can’t resist. A few weeks ago, we dove into State of the Union mention markets, and more recently, we zeroed in on some interesting markets at the Oscars.

Oscars Recap

It was an up night at the Oscars — not for the award show itself, of course. That was its usual hot, steaming pile of self-aggrandizing garbage.

Our picks, however, helped turn this insufferable snob-fest into a slightly profitable insufferable snob-fest.

BEST PICTURE

Viewing the Academy’s picks through their favorite lens of left-wing social activism paid off. One Battle After Another took home Best Picture, thanks in large part to it being built around the leftist cause du jour.

We felt good about this one going in. It checked a lot of Academy boxes: fashionable politics, revolutionary vibes, and the opportunity for voters to feel morally superior to the audience.

We also feel pretty good about the profit, this was my biggest position of the night.

WIN (+30%)

BEST ACTOR

Michael B. Jordan completed the comeback and took home the Oscar over Timothée Chalamet, who apparently made the fatal mistake of criticizing ballet and opera. As it turns out, insulting ballet and opera is not the best strategy when the voting body is roughly 40% theater kids and 60% people who wish they were theater kids.

Even though Chalamet lost, I’m comfortable with the value of his price in the low 30% range. Over time, looking for value like this pays off. In this instance, however, we ended up on the short end, just like Chalamet.

LOSS

SEAN PENN

Perhaps the best part of the Oscars was the fact that Sean Penn decided not to show up. So anyone who took a winning position on Penn got a nice return and was spared having to listen to Spicoli mumble on stage about the virtues of socialism.

WIN (+43%)

CONCLUSION

Predicting the entitled, bubble-wrapped minds of Hollywood elites is never easy.

Navigating the Academy’s ego minefield left us with a +12.4% return—not quite enough to buy the studio, but a win is a win. Think of it as a small rebate for every time you’ve lit money on fire watching one of Hollywood’s duds; at least this time, you clawed a little bit back.