I’ve been using marker positions as well, but since I’m dealing with a smaller bankroll I will buy .01 shares for a marker. Beyond it being a tiny position, these are easy to sort by and and really stick out to remind me to research more.
In Louisiana, the odds for pretty much every congressional candidate to win their party’s official nomination is near-zero right now on Kalshi; this is because of some very strange and complicated technicalities as a result of their gerrymandering effort, and the real odds of anybody being OFFICIALLY nominated as the Republican or Democratic candidate is, if I understand it correctly, genuinely zero. Wonder if you know anything about this.
Sorta. A couple of different issues at play. 1) Federal judge forced Louisiana to draw a 4-2 congressional map b/c of demographics. Supreme Court ruled the map unconstitutional, so new 5-1 map was passed. 2) The senate races are closed primary now, but certain races, including house races reverted back to open (jungle) primary. That means parties won’t make formal nominations, and unless a special session changes the law again, those markets all resolve to “NO.” Hope that helps.
The LA Rep Gov Runoff has margin markets that could be interesting. I’m no on letlow winning more than 12%. Recent poll this week shows a very tight race but the market leans heavy letlow. I don’t think she is a sure thing. But the margins and the safety is in margins I think.
It feels like they are, but I don’t have enough of a vibe to lock anything in. Going to watch for any late breaking opportunities, but not going in early.
I’ve been using marker positions as well, but since I’m dealing with a smaller bankroll I will buy .01 shares for a marker. Beyond it being a tiny position, these are easy to sort by and and really stick out to remind me to research more.
In Louisiana, the odds for pretty much every congressional candidate to win their party’s official nomination is near-zero right now on Kalshi; this is because of some very strange and complicated technicalities as a result of their gerrymandering effort, and the real odds of anybody being OFFICIALLY nominated as the Republican or Democratic candidate is, if I understand it correctly, genuinely zero. Wonder if you know anything about this.
Sorta. A couple of different issues at play. 1) Federal judge forced Louisiana to draw a 4-2 congressional map b/c of demographics. Supreme Court ruled the map unconstitutional, so new 5-1 map was passed. 2) The senate races are closed primary now, but certain races, including house races reverted back to open (jungle) primary. That means parties won’t make formal nominations, and unless a special session changes the law again, those markets all resolve to “NO.” Hope that helps.
The LA Rep Gov Runoff has margin markets that could be interesting. I’m no on letlow winning more than 12%. Recent poll this week shows a very tight race but the market leans heavy letlow. I don’t think she is a sure thing. But the margins and the safety is in margins I think.
Any opinion on CO-01? Denver area gunna elect a socialist like NY did?
It feels like they are, but I don’t have enough of a vibe to lock anything in. Going to watch for any late breaking opportunities, but not going in early.
Got just 2 shares on the socialist.
Good info, thank you. I'm going to explore using the "markers". That will help me focus.