Graham Platner's Sudden Collapse

And the trading lesson we're taking from it...

I began yesterday looking for prediction market stories and somehow wound up complaining about the World Cup because everywhere I looked, it felt like soccer had taken over the news. I know I’m supposed to embrace it. I know everyone tells me it’s different now. But every time I turn it on, somebody is passing the ball backwards and another guy is rolling around on the ground like he just took a direct hit from artillery.

Maybe it’s just me. But I highly doubt it.

Either way, it’s a bit of a moot point after the USMT lost. I can go back to whining about other stuff. Like Taylor Swift. Apparently, my daughter is now the official Predictable Show Taylor Swift expert, after predicting with 100% accuracy the guest markets on the Swift/Kelce wedding (WATCH IT HERE).

And the news cycle just keeps on churning. Graham Platner’s candidacy is now in question after serious sexual assault charges surfaced. It’s unclear if he’s going to survive, or even try to survive, the rape allegations. I’ll let the dems worry about what to do with their nazi-rape accused candidate. The takeaway I’d like to focus on is how this sudden news shift reminded me of a couple of things. First, it’s probably not a good idea to run a nazi-type womanizer for political office, no matter how much democrats love them. Second, how easy it is to let the news cycle dictate your thinking. One day it’s soccer. Tomorrow it’s a nazi rapist. Next week it’s something else. The headlines never stop.

After these allegations, the prediction markets immediately began repricing the odds that he’ll remain the Democratic nominee in Maine. Whether you’re trading that market or simply watching it, it’s another reminder that prediction markets can change in a hurry. New information arrives. Prices move. Narratives shift.

That’s exactly why having a process matters.

The Rules Matter More Than the Headlines

The show this week is focused on those rules. Coming off celebrating America’s founding documents over the holiday, I realized it was probably time to revisit the founding document of this show, too: I call it the Predictable Constitution.

Last night we started with some of the most important ones:

There is no such thing as a “sure thing”

Always read the market rules before trading

Remember that it’s often easier to predict what won’t happen than what will.

None of these ideas are flashy. Nobody wakes up excited to hear someone tell them to read the rules. But they’re the difference between building a portfolio over time and explaining to your spouse why your “can’t miss” trade somehow missed, and the new purse she wanted will have to wait. (Definitely NOT a real-world example. That I’ve lived out in my household. Definitely not.)

I’ve made just about every mistake you can make. The Predictable Show Constitution exists because I’d rather learn from my own stupidity once than keep paying tuition every election cycle. No, it’s not legally binding. Congress will thankfully have no say in it. It’s just the collection of trading rules I’ve written for myself after years of making mistakes that were expensive enough to deserve their own amendment.

Only a few hours after recording, the Graham Platner story broke and we immediately put the Predictable Constitution to work. The trick isn’t reacting the fastest. It’s reacting the smartest, and having a process in place ensures you’re in the latter category.

Tonight We’ll Go Deeper

Tonight we’re going to spend a lot more time on the Platner situation, what it means for the markets, and whether there’s still opportunity left after today’s dramatic move.

We’ll also keep working through the Predictable Constitution because these quieter lessons are the ones that matter when the breaking news finally arrives. Anyone can chase headlines. The challenge is building a process that still makes sense when your phone starts buzzing and everybody else is losing their minds.

We’ll see if there’s still value left in the Platner market tonight. We’ll also keep an eye on the news and see which politician gets accused of rape next! I wonder if there’s a market on that?

I’ll see you later today on YouTube — watch HERE.